Robust Reliability Assessment of Water Reservoir Under Uncertainty of Climate Change

8 pages•Published: September 20, 2018

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to introduce method of the robust reservoir performance evaluation under the climate change uncertainty. Water resources adaptation on climate change, drought management strategies as well as hydrological and reservoir modeling in the climate change uncertainty have been serious issues. Newly developed lumped water balance model and reservoir simulation model will be used. Based on these tools the approach of robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will be introduced. The hydrological data under climate change will be constructed using the statistical downscaling tool LARS WG. Ensemble of 29 climate scenarios will be created. The hydrology analysis and the temporal reliability of reservoir storage capacity and its robustness assessment against the climate change uncertainty will be presented on the case study of the Vir I reservoir and Svratka river basin in the Czech Republic.

Keyphrases: climate change, reliability, reservoir simulation model, robustness, water balance model

In: Goffredo La Loggia, Gabriele Freni, Valeria Puleo and Mauro De Marchis (editors). HIC 2018. 13th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, vol 3, pages 1316-1323.

Links:	https://easychair.org/publications/paper/MD13
	https://doi.org/10.29007/s5s1