COVID-19 Epidemic Model Including Unreported Cases and Environmental Fluctuations

14 pages•Published: July 12, 2024

Abstract

The study of infectious diseases in humans has become increasingly important in public health. This paper extends the SEIR model to include unreported COVID-19 cases (U) and environmental white noise. Dynamic analysis is conducted based on the variation of the environment. The ergodicity and stationary distribution criteria are discussed. Using a Lyapunov function, we write down some sufficient conditions for disease extinction. With different intensities of stochastic noises, we calculate the threshold of extinction for the stochastic epidemic system. In order to control the spread of disease, the stochastic noise plays an important role. A numerical simulation and a fit to real data have shown that the model and theoretical results are valid.

Keyphrases: covid 19, environmental fluctuations, epidemic model, stochastic noise, unreported cases

In: Hisham Al-Mubaid, Tamer Aldwairi and Oliver Eulenstein (editors). Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Computational Biology (BICOB-2024), vol 101, pages 11-24.

Links:	https://easychair.org/publications/paper/f4bBT
	https://doi.org/10.29007/gxgq

BibTeX entry

@inproceedings{BICOB-2024:COVID_19_Epidemic_Model,
  author    = {Fathalla Rihan and Hebatallah Alsakaji},
  title     = {COVID-19 Epidemic Model Including Unreported Cases and Environmental Fluctuations},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Computational Biology (BICOB-2024)},
  editor    = {Hisham Al-Mubaid and Tamer Aldwairi and Oliver Eulenstein},
  series    = {EPiC Series in Computing},
  volume    = {101},
  publisher = {EasyChair},
  bibsource = {EasyChair, https://easychair.org},
  issn      = {2398-7340},
  url       = {/publications/paper/f4bBT},
  doi       = {10.29007/gxgq},
  pages     = {11-24},
  year      = {2024}}

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