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Predicting high-cost patients by Machine Learning: A case study in an Australian private hospital group

10 pagesPublished: March 18, 2019

Abstract

Healthcare is considered a data-intensive industry, offering large data volumes that can, for example, be used as the basis for data-driven decisions in hospital resource planning. A significant aspect in that context is the prediction of cost-intensive patients. The presented paper introduces prediction models to identify patients at risk of causing extensive costs to the hospital. Based on a data set from a private Australian hospital group, four logistic regression models designed and evaluated to predict cost-intensive patients. Each model utilizes different feature sets including attributes gradually available throughout a patient episode. The results show that in particular variables reflecting hospital resources have a high influence on the probability to become a cost-intensive patient. The corresponding prediction model that incorporates attributes describing resource utilization achieves a sensitivity of 94.32% and thus enables an effective prediction of cost-intensive patients.

Keyphrases: cost intensive, healthcare, machine learning, prediction, predictive analytics

In: Oliver Eulenstein, Hisham Al-Mubaid and Qin Ding (editors). Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, vol 60, pages 94-103.

BibTeX entry
@inproceedings{BiCOB2019:Predicting_high_cost_patients,
  author    = {Isabella Eigner and Freimut Bodendorf and Nilmini Wickramasinghe},
  title     = {Predicting high-cost patients by Machine Learning: A case study in an Australian private hospital group},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Computational Biology},
  editor    = {Oliver Eulenstein and Hisham Al-Mubaid and Qin Ding},
  series    = {EPiC Series in Computing},
  volume    = {60},
  publisher = {EasyChair},
  bibsource = {EasyChair, https://easychair.org},
  issn      = {2398-7340},
  url       = {/publications/paper/pZqS},
  doi       = {10.29007/jw6h},
  pages     = {94-103},
  year      = {2019}}
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