Study on Prediction Method for Group of Bridges Using Markov Chain Method

EasyChair Preprint 12833

Abstract

Japan’s infrastructure was intensively developed during the period of high economic growth and there are concerns that the number of aging infrastructures will increase rapidly in the future, and some kind of countermeasures will be needed. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a highly accurate infrastructure deterioration prediction method. Traditional methods have several problems and are imprecise. Therefore, this research aims to utilize bridge inspection data and diagnosis data managed by the national, prefectural, and municipal governments to develop a deterioration prediction method using a Markov chain model. The current issue is how to reflect variations in the progress of deterioration for individual bridges using the calculated transition probabilities. We proposed a deterioration prediction method using a Markov model to propose a more accurate method. In the deterioration prediction method, a method of predicting the deterioration curve of a group of bridges or individual bridges was examined. It is considered possible to make highly accurate future predictions by using the accumulated inspection data.

Keyphrases: Maintenance, Markov chain analysis, prediction method

@booklet{EasyChair:12833,
  author    = {Jui Jerin and Shota Nakashima and Yoshikazu Akira and Toshinobu Yamaguchi},
  title     = {Study on Prediction Method for Group of Bridges Using Markov Chain Method},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 12833},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2024}}