The Dengue Cases Using Grey Model

EasyChair Preprint 9100

Abstract

The forecasting of Dengue cases was only relied on ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average), the Grey Model has been acceptable worldwide. The GM(1,1) and GM(1,1) expanded with periodic correction (GM(1,1)EP)model were tested with annual Dengue cases, the determined Grey models showed good prediction results for the normal year 2018, but was not good for the peak year 2019. The roll forward with the Grey models GM(1,1)EP for monthly data were not achieved good accuracy results due to the data may lost their originality. The sophisticated model will be explored to achieve the accuracy of prediction.

Keyphrases: Dengue cases, Forecasting, grey model, time series

@booklet{EasyChair:9100,
  author    = {Preecha Khrueasom and Chalermchai Puripat and Shawiss Puripat and Vadhana Jayathavaj},
  title     = {The Dengue Cases Using Grey Model},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 9100},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2022}}